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  • 10 March 2010 
     
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    Risk management :: Risk Analysis

    For each identified risk, which has a 'clearly significant' or 'possibly significant' consequence, each should be assess to establish qualitatively and approximately the values described below:

    • The likelihood/frequency of the risk occurring per unit of time or some other convenient unit
    • The potential consequence if the risk occurs.
    • The most likely frequency of the risk occurring during the whole lifetime of the investment.
    • The likely timing of the risk's impact
    • The acceptance score, by combining the likelihood with the consequence, using the risk assessment tables

    It is important to start with a natural or convenient basis for estimation, and link this to a life-cycle estimate. If there is a range of possible values, it may be acceptable, to represent the range by its mid point or average value.

    If a risk is related to one or more other risks -in the sense that they share common causes or for other reasons the occurrence of one affects the likelihood of another -the related risks should be evaluated together. The resulting assessment of each risk or group of related risks should be entered in the risk register.

    The significance of risks should be reviewed and then they should be reclassified into the categories of significance. For risks, which are 'probably insignificant', the decision must be made as to whether they can be ignored.

    Particular attention and care must be taken with identifying and classifying risks which could have either

    • serious or catastrophic consequences or high expected values, or
    • exceptionally favourable consequences

    All the risks in both of these categories are likely to need particular, individual attention when assessing the overall 'riskiness' of the investment. A decision must be made about which risks and are amenable to more detailed evaluation and quantification.


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